Cancer Vaccines Markets

Cancer Vaccines: Market Forecast, Competitive Landscape and Strategic Opportunities, 2027–2031

Global forecasts by vaccine type, technology, indication, product and route of administration, with country and regional breakouts and 10 company profiles.

Our Take

Cancer vaccines are turning therapeutic. Preventive HPV and hepatitis B vaccines make up 92% of a $6.1 billion market in 2026, but therapeutic vaccines rise from 8% to 26% of a $9.5 billion market by 2031. The turning point is Moderna and Merck's intismeran: full Phase 3 data presented at ESMO in October 2026 showed a 42% reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death, and this report forecasts it at $1.0 billion in 2031. Meanwhile Gardasil, still by far the largest product, is resetting after losing its China business.

Situation Analysis: what is really happening

• Gardasil is resetting. Sales fell 39% to $5.2 billion in 2025 as demand collapsed in China. This report forecasts $4.8 billion in 2026, recovering slowly to $5.6 billion in 2031, while lower-priced HPV vaccines grow from $650 million to $1.0 billion.
• Individualized mRNA vaccines have arrived. Intismeran plus Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42% (hazard ratio 0.58) in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial. Neoantigen vaccines grow from almost nothing to $1.1 billion, 12% of the market in 2031.
• Melanoma leads, lung cancer is the bigger prize. Melanoma becomes the largest therapeutic vaccine indication, rising from $61 million to $1.2 billion, and non-small cell lung cancer reaches $333 million.
• Not every vaccine will work. BioNTech stopped its colorectal cancer trial of autogene cevumeran in August 2026, and IO Biotech is exploring strategic alternatives after the FDA advised against filing its melanoma vaccine.
• BCG is a supply story. BCG revenue grows from $232 million to $551 million, but Merck has delayed its new BCG plant into 2027 while Anktiva's expanded approval adds demand.

Company Analysis: who is positioned, who is exposed

• Merck & Co.: The largest company in the market, combining Gardasil, the sole U.S. supply of TICE BCG and a share of intismeran, which it aims to use with Keytruda to extend its oncology leadership beyond Keytruda's patent expiries.
• Moderna: Co-developer of intismeran, the first individualized neoantigen or mRNA cancer therapy to succeed in Phase 3, with nine Phase 2 and 3 INTerpath trials across melanoma, lung, bladder and kidney cancer. It must now scale individualized manufacturing.
• BioNTech: Develops individualized and off-the-shelf mRNA vaccines, but stopped its colorectal cancer trial of autogene cevumeran in August 2026; the pancreatic cancer trial continues.
• Wantai BioPharm: Cecolin 9, the first Chinese 9-valent HPV vaccine, priced about 60% below Gardasil 9 in China, leads the challenge from lower-priced HPV vaccines.
• ImmunityBio: Anktiva's October 2026 expanded approval and recombinant BCG from the Serum Institute of India position it to address BCG shortages.
• OSE Immunotherapeutics: Tedopi, an off-the-shelf neoepitope vaccine, is close to full enrolment in its registrational Phase 3 lung cancer trial, but cash runway is confirmed only through December 2026.

Plus 4 more company profiles covering established vaccine and immunotherapy makers and low-cost vaccine suppliers.

Questions this report answers

• How quickly can intismeran turn one positive Phase 3 trial into a broad franchise?
• Will individualized vaccines work beyond melanoma, especially in lung cancer?
• How far will Gardasil recover after losing its China business?
• How fast will lower-priced Chinese and Indian HPV vaccines take share?
• How long will BCG shortages last, and who benefits?
• Which off-the-shelf therapeutic vaccines can reach the market by 2031?

What’s inside

• 163 pages, 23 chapters, 36 tables and 56 figures
• 10 company profiles with technology, pipeline, strategy and risks
• Forecasts 2027–2031 from a 2026 base (actual) year, by vaccine type, technology, indication, product and route of administration, for 14 countries and regions
• Approved product registry, 2025 sales benchmarks and the full ESMO 2026 intismeran data
• Clinical pipeline, manufacturing and BCG supply, regulatory pathways, and a China ecosystem chapter
• Delivered as 3 files: full report PDF, Situation Analysis PDF, and Excel workbook of all charts and tables
• Download the Table of Contents (PDF)

Who buys this report

• Business development teams: track which vaccine platforms and tumor types are winning, and who leads each.
• Investors and equity analysts: model intismeran's launch, Gardasil's recovery and the BCG supply gap.
• Vaccine developers: choose the technologies, indications and combinations with the most room to grow.
• Vaccine manufacturers and suppliers: size HPV price competition and the BCG and individualized manufacturing opportunity.

Licences and support

Your order is delivered to your inbox immediately. Every licence includes unlimited questions to the analyst and custom data breakouts, including any country not shown. Single User, Five User and Enterprise licences contain the same report; they differ only in how many people may use it.

About the author

Greg Powell, B.Sc., M.B.A., has worked in laboratory testing and management for more than 20 years, with executive training at Harvard Business School and the Burke Institute.