Antibody Drug Conjugates in Oncology Markets

Antibody Drug Conjugates in Oncology: Market Forecast, Competitive Landscape and Strategic Opportunities, 2027–2031

Global forecasts by indication, payload, target antigen, linker chemistry and structural format, with country and regional breakouts and 52 company profiles.

Our Take

The next phase of the ADC market will be won in lung cancer and in new formats, not in breast cancer, where HER2 and TROP2 are already crowded. We forecast the market to nearly double, to $35.8 billion in 2031, with non-small cell lung cancer the largest source of new revenue and bispecific and dual-payload designs, starting in China, the fastest-growing formats. Companies without a lung strategy, a next-generation platform or a China sourcing channel will be licensing in at higher prices.

Situation Analysis: what is really happening

• Lung cancer is the next battleground. Non-small cell lung cancer is now the largest single ADC indication and adds more revenue than any other. Sac-TMT’s first-line win over Keytruda alone shows where the market is heading.
• ADCs are moving into earlier, curative-intent treatment. Enhertu in HER2-positive early breast cancer, Trodelvy in first-line triple-negative disease and Padcev plus Keytruda around bladder surgery all widen the treatable population and lengthen treatment duration.
• New formats are arriving, and China is first. China approved iza-bren, the first bispecific ADC. Bispecific, dual-payload and oligonucleotide conjugates are the fastest-growing segments, and Gilead’s Tubulis and Lilly’s CrossBridge deals are bets on them.
• HER2 and TROP2 are crowded, and TROP2 is growing fastest. HER2 still carries about half the market, but TROP2 is the fastest-growing major target. Trodelvy, Datroway and sac-TMT now compete on line of therapy, combination partner and tolerability.

Company Analysis: who is positioned, who is exposed

• AstraZeneca / Daiichi Sankyo: The fastest-growing ADC franchise, but the lead rests on one drug and one partnership.
• Pfizer: Five approved ADCs after Seagen give it the broadest portfolio. But it inherited them, and without its own discovery engine, growth slows once those labels are fully expanded.
• Merck & Co. / Kelun-Biotech: No wholly owned ADC, yet sac-TMT’s first-line lung result makes it the TROP2 asset to watch and the model for China-sourced deals.
• Bristol Myers Squibb / Biokin: Iza-bren is the leading test of whether bispecific ADCs justify their deal values, and positive survival data in triple-negative breast cancer strengthen the case.
• AbbVie: Three approved ADCs in two years, through ImmunoGen and its own development, make it the fastest new entrant into the approved tier.
• WuXi XDC and Lonza: Bioconjugation capacity is a bottleneck, which makes the CDMOs quieter winners than most drug developers.

Plus 46 more company profiles covering big pharma, China-originated players, platform licensors and CDMOs.

Questions this report answers

• Which cancers will add the most ADC revenue by 2031?
• Can TROP2 ADCs close the gap with HER2?
• How much of the ADC pipeline now comes from China, and why is global pharma licensing it?
• Will bispecific and dual-payload ADCs earn back their deal values?
• When do first-generation ADCs face biosimilars, and how fast will prices fall?
• Is bioconjugation and CDMO capacity keeping pace with the ADC pipeline?

What’s inside

• 247 pages, 23 chapters
• 52 company profiles with technology, pipeline, strategy and risks
• Forecasts 2027–2031 from a 2026 base (actual) year, by indication, payload, target antigen, linker and format, for 14 countries and regions
• Approved ADC registry and clinical pipeline analysis
• Patent cliff and biosimilar timeline, China ADC ecosystem chapter, and manufacturing and CDMO capacity analysis
• Delivered as 3 files: full report PDF, Situation Analysis PDF, and Excel workbook of all charts and tables
• Download the Table of Contents (PDF)

Who buys this report

• Business development and licensing teams: find in-licensing candidates and judge which platforms and China-originated assets matter.
• Investors and equity analysts: size the opportunity and judge which platforms hold value.
• ADC developers and platform companies: spot target white space and partnering options.
• CDMOs and suppliers: plan capacity against the pipeline and approvals.

Licences and support

Your order is delivered to your inbox immediately. Every licence includes unlimited questions to the analyst and custom data breakouts, including any country not shown. Single User, Five User and Enterprise licences contain the same report; they differ only in how many people may use it.

About the author

Greg Powell, B.Sc., M.B.A., has worked in laboratory testing and management for more than 20 years, with executive training at Harvard Business School and the Burke Institute.